Dataset
Method net CARi
kg CO2e / litre milk
Claimed (tonne-tonne)i
kg CO2e / litre milk
Overstatementi
vs conventionali
MAOC accrual fractioni 60%
MAOC 60%POC 40%
Prairie et al. 2023 | Base MAOC 80% | NT: 32/68 | CI: 47/53 | Avg: 40/60
Base MAOC stock 80%
Recomputes accrual split via Prairie et al. 2023
POC MRT 10 yr
MAOC MRT 200 yr
Time horizon 100 yr
CAR credit rate 1%/yr
MAOC saturation 60% +
Breure et al. (2025, Nature Communications)
Below 68% median — MAOC capacity available. New inputs can bind to mineral surfaces.
Above 68% median — MAOC near capacity. New inputs route to POC.
Risk class (Breure Fig. 6)
Adjustment applied
Net emissions comparison
Method adjusted Claimed net Conventional Gross emissions
Net emissions bar chart.
MAOC MRT sensitivity
MRT sensitivity.
Time horizon sensitivity
Horizon sensitivity.
Key concepts ↓
What is soil organic carbon (SOC)? +

When plants grow, they pull carbon dioxide out of the air and use it to build leaves, stems, and roots. When those plant parts die, they fall into the soil and decompose. Some of that carbon gets eaten by microbes, some escapes back into the air, and some stays locked in the soil — that locked portion is soil organic carbon.

SOC is important for two reasons. First, it improves soil health — it helps soil hold water, supports microbes, and feeds crops. Second, it stores carbon that would otherwise be in the atmosphere as CO₂. Regenerative farming practices like no-till, cover cropping, and rotational grazing are claimed to increase SOC. The question this tool asks is: how long does that stored carbon actually stay in the soil?

What is MAOC — mineral-associated organic carbon? +

Think of clay and silt particles in soil as tiny magnets. Certain types of organic carbon — mostly small, broken-down molecules produced by soil microbes — stick to the surfaces of these mineral particles. Once stuck, they become chemically protected and very hard to break down. This is mineral-associated organic carbon, or MAOC.

MAOC is the durable fraction of soil carbon. It can persist in soil for decades to centuries — on average around 200 years, though this varies widely by soil type and climate. When carbon credit schemes say they are "sequestering carbon," the most valuable portion is MAOC, because it is genuinely long-lived. The downside is that mineral surfaces have a finite number of binding sites — once they are full, no more MAOC can form. This is the saturation limit that the Breure et al. slider in this tool reflects.

What is POC — particulate organic carbon? +

Not all organic carbon sticks to mineral surfaces. Larger pieces — fragments of roots, leaves, and fungal material — sit loosely in the soil without that chemical protection. This is particulate organic carbon, or POC.

POC is the temporary fraction. It is actively being broken down by soil microbes, which use it as food and release the carbon back to the atmosphere as CO₂. On average it lasts around 5–20 years before decomposing, though some studies suggest it can persist longer in cold or wet soils. Because it is loosely held, it is also the first carbon to be lost when soils are disturbed — by tillage, drought, or a change in management.

The key insight of this tool: most carbon accounting schemes credit POC and MAOC equally. But if POC is gone in 10 years, claiming a 100-year credit for it overstates the climate benefit.

What is mean residence time (MRT)? +

Mean residence time is simply the average length of time a carbon atom spends in a given pool before it is released back to the atmosphere. Think of it like an average stay in a hotel — some guests check out after one night, some stay for months, and MRT is the average across all guests.

For POC, MRT is estimated at roughly 5–20 years — short stays. For MAOC, MRT is estimated at 45–383 years depending on soil type, climate, and depth — long stays. These ranges are uncertain, which is why this tool has sliders for both.

MRT matters for carbon accounting because a tonne of carbon stored for 10 years does not have the same climate value as a tonne stored for 200 years. Tonne-year accounting (used by CAR SEP and this tool's LSR pool-weighted scenario) adjusts for this by only crediting the fraction of storage that is actually durable relative to the accounting horizon.

What is MAOC saturation and why does it matter? +

Mineral surfaces can only hold so much carbon — they have a finite number of binding sites. When those sites are full, no new MAOC can form. The soil is said to be at MAOC saturation. Any additional organic carbon inputs at that point go into POC instead, where they are short-lived and vulnerable to loss.

Breure et al. (2025) mapped this saturation level across EU and UK agricultural soils. They found that the average MAOC saturation across European agricultural soils is around 68%. Soils above this threshold — common in cool, humid regions like northern England and Scotland — are at higher risk: not only are their MAOC pools near full, but they are also more likely to be losing carbon overall.

For this tool, saturation matters because a farm claiming MAOC sequestration on already-saturated soils may be overstating the amount of new carbon that can actually be durably stored. The Breure saturation slider lets you explore how much this changes the inventory number.

What is the difference between a carbon credit and an inventory entry? +

A carbon credit is a tradeable instrument issued by a registry (like Verra or CAR). One credit represents one tonne of CO₂ reduced or removed, verified against a specific protocol. Credits can be bought and sold, and companies use them to offset emissions they cannot reduce elsewhere.

A GHG inventory entry is different. It is an accounting record in a company's greenhouse gas report. Under the GHG Protocol LSR Standard, companies report land-based carbon removals as a stock-change: they measure the soil carbon at two points in time and report the difference. There is no registry, no tradeable credit, no buffer pool. If the carbon is lost in a future year, it is reported as a positive emission in that year.

The same tonne of soil carbon can appear in both — as a credit sold through Verra, and as a removal in the buyer's GHG inventory. But the numbers are calculated differently, and the permanence obligations are different. This tool shows all three side by side so you can see the gap.

Worked example — First Milk dairy +

AgriCarbon and 8point9 published a life cycle assessment of First Milk dairy showing a net emission of +0.07 kg CO₂e per litre of milk — a figure positioned as near-net-zero dairy. This is the tonne-tonne number: gross emissions minus the full claimed sequestration, with no adjustment for how long that sequestered carbon will actually stay in the soil. The worked example below applies this tool’s three accounting frameworks to those published figures using central parameter assumptions. The aim is not to dispute the underlying measurements, but to show what the same number looks like under different accounting rules.

Step 1 — Published inputs (taken at face value)
Parameter Value Source
Gross emissions+1.15 kg CO₂e / litreFirst Milk LCA [9]
Claimed sequestration−1.08 kg CO₂e / litreFirst Milk LCA [9]
Claimed net (tonne-tonne)+0.07 kg CO₂e / litregross − seq
Conventional dairy+1.15 kg CO₂e / litreindustry average
Step 2 — Central parameter assumptions
Parameter Value used Basis
MAOC accrual fraction63% MAOC / 37% POCPrairie et al. (2023), base MAOC 85%
POC mean residence time10 yearsLavallee et al. (2020), central
MAOC mean residence time200 yearsLavallee et al. (2020), central
Accounting horizon100 yearsCAR SEP default; IPCC standard
MAOC saturation (LSR only)60% / 80% (UK HR class)Breure et al. (2025), EU median 68%
Verra buffer pool15%VM0042 typical range 10–20%
Prairie et al. (2023) covers cropland systems — application to permanent pasture is an extrapolation. MRT ranges carry substantial uncertainty; use the sliders to explore pessimistic (POC 5yr / MAOC 45yr) and optimistic (POC 20yr / MAOC 383yr) bounds.
Step 3 — Calculation walkthrough
CAR SEP v1.1 — tonne-year credit issuance
POC factor   = min(10 ÷ 100, 1) = 0.10
MAOC factor = min(200 ÷ 100, 1) = 1.00  (capped — MRT exceeds horizon)
Credit        = 1.08 × (0.37 × 0.10 + 0.63 × 1.00) = 1.08 × 0.667 = 0.720
Net           = 1.15 − 0.720 = +0.43 kg CO₂e / litre

The POC fraction (37%) receives only 10% credit because it will cycle out of the soil within roughly 10 years — well within the 100-year horizon. MAOC (63%) receives full credit because its 200-year residence time exceeds the horizon. The near-net-zero claim does not survive this adjustment.

Verra VM0042 — tonne-tonne + buffer credit issuance
Buffer withheld = 1.08 × 15% = 0.162  (held against reversal risk)
Credit          = 1.08 × (1 − 0.15) = 1.08 × 0.85 = 0.918
Net             = 1.15 − 0.918 = +0.23 kg CO₂e / litre

Verra credits the full verified SOC gain but withholds 15% to a pooled buffer account as insurance against future reversals. No pool-specific MRT adjustment is made — all sequestration is treated as equally permanent once verified.

GHG Protocol LSR — inventory corporate inventory · not credit issuance
Full delta, sat=60% (below EU median — pre-conservativeness ceiling):
  Eff. seq = 1.08 × 63% × (1 − 0%) = 0.680  → Net = +0.47

Full delta, sat=80% (UK cool-humid HR class — Breure et al. 2025):
  Sat. discount = (80 − 68) ÷ 32 = 37.5%
  Eff. seq = 1.08 × 63% × (1 − 0.375) = 0.425  → Net = +0.72

Pool-weighted / conservative (same formula as CAR):
  Net = +0.43 kg CO₂e / litre

Under LSR Requirement 2, estimates must not overstate removals. POC is excluded from the creditable fraction as too short-lived to qualify as a durable removal. The MAOC fraction is further discounted if soils are near saturation.

Step 4 — Results summary
Scenario Net (kg CO₂e / litre) vs claimed +0.07 vs conv. +1.15
Claimed (tonne-tonne)+0.07baseline−94%
CAR SEP v1.1 tonne-year+0.43+514%−63%
Verra VM0042 (15% buffer)+0.23+229%−80%
LSR full delta (sat=60%)+0.47+571%−59%
LSR full delta (sat=80%, UK HR)+0.72+935%−37%
LSR pool-weighted (conservative)+0.43+514%−63%
Conventional dairy+1.15+1,543%baseline
What the numbers say. The sequestration is real and the management improvement is substantial — First Milk dairy performs 37–63% below conventional dairy across all scenarios. The near-net-zero claim, however, depends on crediting the full claimed sequestration with no permanence adjustment. Under every framework in this tool the net is positive and well above +0.07. The gap between +0.07 (claimed) and +0.43 (CAR central) is not a measurement dispute — it is an accounting choice about how long the stored carbon is assumed to persist.
References +
[1]
Prairie, A.M., King, A.E. & Cotrufo, M.F. (2023). Restoring particulate and mineral-associated organic carbon through regenerative agriculture. PNAS, 120(21). doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2217481120
[2]
Minasny, B. & McBratney, A.B. (2024). Soil carbon tonne-year accounting. Geoderma, 450, 117027. doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2024.117027
[3]
Lavallee, J.M., Soong, J.L. & Cotrufo, M.F. (2020). Conceptualizing soil organic matter into particulate and mineral-associated forms. Global Change Biology, 26(1). doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14859
[4]
Mosier, S. et al. (2021). Adaptive multi-paddock grazing enhances soil carbon. Journal of Environmental Management, 288. doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112409
[5]
Chay, F. et al. (2022). Unpacking ton-year accounting. CarbonPlan. carbonplan.org
[6]
Climate Action Reserve (2022). Soil Enrichment Protocol v1.1. climateactionreserve.org
[7]
Verra (2024). VM0042 Improved Agricultural Land Management v2.1. verra.org
[8]
Thorbecke, M. & Dettling, J. (2019). Carbon footprint of regenerative grazing at White Oak Pastures. Quantis.
[9]
8point9 / AgriCarbon (2025). First Milk testing proves soil carbon is the key to net zero dairy. 8point9.com
[10]
GHG Protocol (2026). Land Sector and Removals Standard v1.0. ghgprotocol.org
[11]
Carter, N. (2021). Another failed attempt to greenwash beef. Sentient Media.
[12]
Breure, T.S. et al. (2025). Revisiting the soil carbon saturation concept. Nature Communications, 16, 2637. doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57355-y
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